Think you can’t make money betting on NFL preseason games? You’re not alone. Most bettors avoid the preseason entirely or treat it like the regular season which are both massive mistakes. The truth is, NFL preseason betting offers some of the sharpest angles in sports betting if you know where to look. These exhibition games may seem “meaningless” to fans, but smart bettors quietly capitalize on market inefficiencies unique to the preseason.
While casual fans dismiss August football, smart bettors prepare diligently and exploit the quirks of preseason odds. Let’s break down four high-ROI NFL preseason betting strategies that continue to work year after year.
1. Follow the Coaches, Not the Teams
A head coach tosses a challenge flag during a preseason game, illustrating how some teams aggressively compete even in exhibition matchups.
Forget regular-season power rankings. In the preseason, coaching tendencies determine outcomes far more than roster talent. Certain coaches consistently approach exhibition games with winning in mind, and their against-the-spread (ATS) records reflect it. For example, Baltimore’s John Harbaugh has led the Ravens to a 38-22-1 ATS record in preseason games (covering 63.3% of the time). In fact, Harbaugh’s teams were notoriously strong in opening preseason games for years. Buffalo’s Sean McDermott is another coach who takes preseason seriously, boasting a 15-7-2 ATS mark (a 68.2% cover rate, the highest among active coaches).
On the flip side, some coaches clearly prioritize evaluation over winning and it shows. Avoid betting on teams led by coaches like Brian Daboll (1-8 ATS in preseason) or Dan Quinn (6-18 ATS) who have abysmal exhibition records. These aren’t flukes; they’re rooted in consistent coaching philosophies. Some coaches openly admit they don’t game-plan or play starters in August, instead using vanilla schemes to simply evaluate talent. Others, like Harbaugh and McDermott, instill a culture of competition and actively try to win even in August.
The takeaway: identify the “bet-on” coaches vs. the “fade” coaches. Back teams with coaches who care about winning in August, and fade those who don’t. As one Vegas oddsmaker put it, _“The NFL preseason is the only time in U.S. pro sports when you can bet a team and a coach that is trying to win against a team and coach that does not care” (Source). In preseason betting, motivation and coaching strategy are everything.
2`. Bet the First Half, Not the Full Game
NFL preseason games are truly a tale of two halves. By the fourth quarter, you’re often watching guys who might be selling insurance next month. Roster deep reserves and camp bodies see the field late, creating unpredictable chaos. The first half, however, offers far more predictability with starters and primary backups in action.
Sharp bettors exploit this by focusing on first-half lines instead of full-game spreads. In the early preseason weeks, coaches usually script their quarterback rotations: starters (if they play at all) get a series or two, and the primary backup might play most of the first half. This means the first-half point spread and total are influenced by players who actually know the system and can execute the offense. By contrast, second halves descend into randomness with third- and fourth-string players.
Listening to coach press conferences is key. Coaches often telegraph their plans – and the betting market doesn’t always adjust enough. When a coach says “the starters will play the first quarter” or “our #2 quarterback will run with the first-team offense,” that’s actionable information. In fact, it’s one of the rare times NFL coaches are candid about strategy. For example, in this year’s preseason opener, Pete Carroll announced he’d play his starters longer than usual; the betting line flipped from Seattle -1.5 to Las Vegas -4.5 largely on that news. If you knew Carroll’s philosophy (he’s historically 40-25-1 ATS in preseason) and heard he was going full bore, you had a huge edge.
By betting first-half spreads or totals, you concentrate your wager on the portion of the game when talent and play-calling are most reliable. Starters and quality backups will dictate the first half, so if you’ve done your homework on coaching plans and QB rotations, you can predict first-half outcomes with higher confidence. The second half? It’s often a coin flip. As a rule, build your preseason strategy around the first half and avoid the late-game randomness.
Trey Lance’s strong performance in this year’s Hall of Fame Game illustrates this edge perfectly. The Chargers gave Lance extended run in the first three quarters, and he delivered, going 13-of-20 for 120 yards and 2 TDs. Facing mostly Detroit backups, Lance looked comfortable and helped Los Angeles jump out early. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s game management – treating the first half seriously – created a perfect storm for first-half bettors. When you know a motivated backup QB will play with the first team against an opponent’s deep reserves, pounce on the first-half line.
3. Target Small Underdogs (Especially on the Road)
One of the most profitable NFL preseason betting angles is backing small underdogs, particularly in road games. Oddsmakers still post point spreads for exhibitions, but these lines are often influenced by public perception rather than true team strength or motivation. That creates value on modest underdogs getting only a point or two.
The data backs this up in a big way. Since 2015, preseason underdogs of +1 to +3 (i.e. essentially pick’ems or field-goal games) have gone a whopping 178-116 ATS, hitting at a 60.5% rate. That is a MASSIVE edge. To put it in perspective, a 60% win rate would make a fortune over a large sample of bets. Even just last preseason, these small underdogs went 16-8 against the spread. Bettors absolutely crushed with short underdogs.
Why does this happen? Largely because favorites are overvalued by casual bettors. Sportsbooks know the public tends to lay points, even in preseason. But in exhibition games, the usual power ratings are unreliable. Star players see limited snaps or sit out entirely. A “better” team might be laying -3, but if their starters play one series and the opponent’s backups are superior, that favorite tag is meaningless. Motivation mismatches also come into play; one side might treat the game like the Super Bowl (to establish a winning culture or break a losing streak), while the favorite sleepwalks through vanilla play-calling.
Interestingly, big preseason favorites have been bad bets. Since 2010, teams favored by more than 7 points are just 5-11 ATS (31.3%). Clearly, giving over a touchdown in August is rarely justified. Meanwhile, moderate favorites of -3.5 to -7 cover around 54.5% – not terrible, but nothing special. The sweet spot is those short underdogs. Often these will be road underdogs because the public and oddsmakers give a few points for home field (which is minimal in preseason). In fact, road teams in general have a slight ATS edge in recent preseasons, and road underdogs of ≤2.5 points have covered nearly 66% since 2015.
The lesson? Grab those small underdogs, especially on the road, and don’t be afraid to bet against the “better” team. If Team A is +2 away but plans to play an inspired backup QB for two quarters against Team B’s third-string defense, that +2 is extremely attractive. Conversely, fade heavy favorites – laying big points in preseason is a losing proposition. Betting the NFL preseason is about contrarian value: embrace the ugly ducklings getting a couple of points and watch them cover at an incredible clip.
4. Monitor Backup QB Quality and Usage
When it comes to preseason betting, quarterback depth charts are the single most important factor. In August, a team’s fortunes often hinge on its second- and third-string QBs. A strong stable of backup quarterbacks can dominate against opposing scrubs – and sportsbooks often misprice these situations.
Savvy bettors always “know the depth chart.” Remember, starters play sparingly (if at all), so a team’s backup quarterback is far more important than its starter for preseason predictions. If a team has an experienced, capable #2 or #3 QB, that team has a huge edge in the second half of preseason games. As one betting guide put it, “a team’s backup quarterback is significantly more important than the starter when it comes to predicting a preseason victory” Source. Wise players target teams with experienced backups or a heated QB competition, since those teams are more likely to keep competent QBs on the field throughout the game.
Look at the Los Angeles Chargers this year as a perfect example. Their QB room is a preseason bettor’s dream: behind starter Justin Herbert, they have former first-round pick Trey Lance and veteran Taylor Heinicke battling for the backup job. That kind of quality depth pays off in August. Lance, in particular, is highly motivated to prove himself and earn a roster spot. In the Hall of Fame Game, with extended playing time, Lance tore up the Lions’ reserve defense for two touchdowns and 120 passing yards. Having a talented QB like Lance (a top draft pick with something to prove) playing against third-string defenders is an inherent mismatch.
It’s not just the Chargers. Any team with a proven veteran backup or a high-upside young QB in competition is worth a long look. Study the quarterback rotations announced for each game. If Coach A says their #2 QB will get “extended work,” consider that a green light to bet on that team, especially if the opponent’s backup situation is weaker. On the other hand, if a team is starting a raw rookie or has a shaky third-stringer slated for big minutes, be cautious backing them no matter how good their starters are. As one handicapper noted, a strong backup QB rotation can even make an otherwise mediocre team a preseason powerhouse, whereas a poor backup group can sink a favorite.
In short, quarterback depth = preseason success. Teams with experienced, motivated backups (and even fourth-stringers) will consistently outperform those with thin QB depth. Do your homework on who’s under center after the first series. When a former first-round talent like Lance or a savvy vet like Heinicke is facing a bunch of future practice-squad players, bet on that edge. These backup quarterbacks often translate to covering spreads and hitting Overs when the market hasn’t accounted for the talent disparity.
The Bottom Line
NFL preseason betting rewards preparation and information more than any other football market. While public bettors chase regular-season storylines, sharp bettors build their bankrolls in August by exploiting these four proven strategies:
- Ride coaches with great preseason ATS records – e.g. bet on Harbaugh’s Ravens or McDermott’s Bills, fade coaches who don’t care to win (Daboll, Quinn). Coaching philosophy matters immensely in exhibition games.
- Focus on first-half lines – that’s when starters and primary backups play and your handicapping edge is biggest. Avoid the wild swings of the fourth quarter and capitalize on early-game mismatches.
- Back small underdogs (especially on the road) – the data shows short underdogs (+1 to +3) cover around 60%. Public bias inflates favorites, but with low stakes and unpredictable rotations, those tiny underdogs are gold. Likewise, don’t lay big points in preseason because large favorites rarely cover.
- Target teams with quality backup QBs – quarterback depth wins preseason games. Bet on teams whose 2nd/3rd string quarterbacks can outclass the opposition, and stay alert to coach comments about QB usage. A strong backup quarterback (or two) is often the difference between an ATS win and loss in August.
The preseason betting edges won’t last forever as sportsbooks adjust their models. But for now, August NFL games remain some of the most profitable opportunities on the calendar for bettors willing to put in the work. With the right information – coaching tendencies, QB rotations, and situational trends – you can consistently beat the preseason market while others ignore it.
What’s your favorite preseason betting angle? There are plenty of ways to attack these “meaningless” games and turn a nice profit before the real action begins. By applying the strategies above, you’ll be ahead of the public (and maybe even the oddsmakers) when betting on the NFL preseason.