Esmerlyn Valdez
HR·1+·PIT @ WAS
6:45 PM ET
Is Esmerlyn Valdez 1+ HR a good bet at this number?
Esmerlyn Valdez has reached 1+ hr in 4 of 7 recent games (57%). Lean over. Small sample — only 7 games of tracked data.
Best Over
+330· BetRivers
Best Under
—
Esmerlyn Valdez vs 0.5: recent track record
Recent games for Esmerlyn Valdez hr vs line 0.5.
Recent games vs line
The hit rate breakdown
Games Played
19
BA
0.316
OPS
1.112
SLG
0.737
Hr L1
0
Hr Avg L3
0
Hr Avg L5
0.4
Hr Avg L7
0.571
Hr Avg L10
0.4
Hr Avg
0.316
Line movement on this prop
Line movement for both sides of the bet, plus best available over vs under over time.
Price history for the Over
Esmerlyn Valdez 1+ HR
Price history for the Under
Under-side history by book is not available yet.
Best over vs best under for this line
Frequently asked
Is Esmerlyn Valdez 1+ HR a good bet at this number?
Esmerlyn Valdez has reached 1+ hr in 4 of 7 recent games (57%). Lean over. Small sample — only 7 games of tracked data.
What is Esmerlyn Valdez's hit rate on this prop?
Esmerlyn Valdez went 1+ in 4 of 7 tracked games — 57% at this line. That's one signal. We also check the season baseline and whether the current price beats our fair-value estimate.
What is the best price on Esmerlyn Valdez 1+?
+330 at BetRivers is the best we're seeing right now across seven books (DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, BetRivers, theScore Bet, Pinnacle). Line shopping matters — the spread across books on a single prop usually runs 15–20 cents. Always take the top of the market.
When does this prop resolve?
Grades on the official box score after PIT @ WAS (scheduled for 6:45 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens decide whether a prop is worth betting?
We look at hit rate (last 10 and last 30), the full-season baseline, and how the prop is priced across seven books. We strip the vig to find a fair price and compare that to the best price available. If the offered price beats fair, we call it a lean. If not, we pass — and we pass a lot. A bad price is still a bad price, even when the player is on a run.