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Research check

MLB player prop· ATL

Settled: Miss

Reynaldo Lopez Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Strikeouts

ATL @ CHCSep 14, 7:41 PM ET
The line

Over 4.5Ks

Final · graded Sep 21

Miss · Actual: 2 Ks · Line 4.5 · Closing price +125 at BetMGM

Past games

DateOpponentLineClosing priceResult
Sep 14, 7:41 PM ETChicago Cubs4.5+125miss

Hit rate vs the line

3of3

(100%)

Last 3 starts · Jul 21 – Sep 9

  1. 6
  2. 6
  3. 5

Ks per start, oldest → newest

L3 average

5.7vs 4.5 line

L5: 5.0 · L10: 3.7

Price move · Over 4.5

−146+125

Best available · open → recorded

Recorded best price

others +110 to +117BetMGM+125

Data as of Sep 14, 7:07 PM ET · recorded prices, shown for research only

Game results

Reynaldo Lopez ks over the last 3 games versus a line of 4.5.

Results versus the line

L3
HitMissL3

What the data showed before the game

The game behind the bet

ATL @ CHC

Sep 14, 7:41 PM ET

Market movement

These recorded prices are shown for research only.

Price history

Over
What's the vig on this price? →
Odds format

Open

−146

Current

+125

Change

+71

Best available moved from −146 to +125. That's a better payout, not a stronger case for Over.

Recorded books

4 books

Best price: BetMGM +125 · 15¢ better than Pinnacle

BetMGM
+125

Under −165

BetMGM quote is stale. Check the current price at the book.
DraftKings
+117

Under −149

DraftKings quote is stale. Check the current price at the book.
FanDuel
+112

Under −142

FanDuel quote is stale. Check the current price at the book.
Pinnacle
+110

Under −146

Pinnacle quote is stale. Check the current price at the book.

Supporting context

Use the primary read window with the longer trend and season-level player stats.

Over
EV −1.4%
L3Primary

100%

3/3 decisions

L5

80%

4/5 decisions

L10

50%

5/10 decisions

Games played

26

ERA

4.68

IP

77

So L1

2

So Avg L3

4.333

So Avg L5

4.4

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