What does the data say about Chase Burns 2+ earned runs at this number?

Chase Burns has had 2+ earned runs in 4 of 5 recent games (80%). No clear edge at the current price.

What is the historical hit rate for Chase Burns 2+ earned runs?

Chase Burns hit 2+ earned runs in 4 of 5 decisions across the last 5 games — 80% hit rate.

What is the best price for Chase Burns 2+ earned runs?

+125 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check for Chase Burns 2+ earned runs right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.

When does this bet resolve?

Grades on the official box score after CHC @ CIN (scheduled for 6:41 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.

How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?

We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We strip the vig to estimate a fair price, then compare it with the best available offer. The summary shows what the data supports without treating any outcome as certain.

Prop check

Chase Burns 2+ Earned Runs

CHC @ CINSep 18, 6:41 PM ET

Recent performance

Chase Burns earned runs over the last 5 games versus a line of 1.5.

Results versus the line

Record

4/5

Hit rate

80%

L5 average

2.2

HitMissL5

Matchup

How Chase Burns and the opponent line up for Earned Runs.

Chase Burns

ERASeason · 28 games: 2.84
ErLast game · 1 game: 2
ErL3: 1.33
ErL5: 2.20
ErL7: 2.29
ErL10: 1.80
ErSeason · 28 games: 1.68

Opponent

Opponent runsL5: 5

Supporting context

Use the primary read window with the longer trend and season-level player stats.

Over

EV −5.4%

L5Primary

80%

4/5 decisions

L10

50%

5/10 decisions

Games played

ERA

2.84

149

Er L1

Er Avg L3

1.333

Er Avg L5

2.2

Market prices

Compare the exact 1.5 earned runs line. Confirm the price at the sportsbook before betting.

Sportsbook links are provided for checking available prices, not as a betting recommendation.

Current books

1 quoting

Best price: BetMGM +125

1 books · stale quotes flagged below

BetMGM

Best

Check

Over

+125

Under −175

Odds updated 2h ago

Book	Over	Under	Updated	Action
BetMGM Best	+125	−175	Odds updated 2h ago	Check

Line movement

2+ earned runs

Odds movement for this exact line. The threshold stays fixed.

Open

+108

Current

+141

Change

+33

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