What does the data say about Kevin Gausman 3+ earned runs at this number?

Kevin Gausman has recorded 3+ earned runs in 6 of their last 10 games (60%). Best price is −110 at BetMGM. The data leans 3+ earned runs.

What is Kevin Gausman's hit rate on this prop?

Kevin Gausman went 3+ earned runs in 6 of 10 decisions across the last 10 games — 60% at this line.

What is the best price on Kevin Gausman 3+ earned runs?

−110 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.

When does this prop resolve?

Grades on the official box score after CHC @ MIL (scheduled for 7:41 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.

How does WagerLens grade this prop?

We compare recent hit-rate windows, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We strip the vig to estimate a fair price, then compare it with the best available offer. The summary shows what the data supports without treating any outcome as certain.

Prop check

Kevin Gausman 3+ Earned Runs

CHC @ MILSep 9, 7:41 PM ET

Recent performance

Kevin Gausman earned runs over the last 10 games versus a line of 2.5.

Results versus the line

Hit rate

60%

Record

6/10

Average

2.8

HitMissL10

Matchup

How Kevin Gausman and the opponent line up for Earned Runs.

Kevin Gausman

ERASeason · 29 games: 4.48
ErLast game · 1 game: 1
ErL3: 2
ErL5: 3
ErL7: 2.57
ErL10: 2.80
ErSeason · 29 games: 2.72

Opponent

Opponent runsL5: 5.80

Supporting context

Use the primary read window with the longer trend and season-level player stats.

Over

60%

3/5 decisions

L10Primary

60%

6/10 decisions

Games played

ERA

4.48

158.6

Er L1

Er Avg L3

Er Avg L5

Market prices

Compare the exact 2.5 earned runs line. Confirm the price at the sportsbook before betting.

Sportsbook links are provided for checking available prices, not as a betting recommendation.

Current books

1 quoting

BetMGM

Best

View

Over

−110

Under −120

Odds updated 9m ago

Book	Over	Under	Updated	Action
BetMGM Best	−110	−120	Odds updated 9m ago	View

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