What does the data say about Merrill Kelly 3+ earned runs at this number?

Merrill Kelly has reached 3+ earned runs in 4 of 5 recent games (80%). Best price is −120 at BetMGM. The data leans 3+ earned runs.

What is Merrill Kelly's hit rate on this prop?

Merrill Kelly went 3+ earned runs in 4 of 5 decisions across the last 5 games — 80% at this line.

What is the best price on Merrill Kelly 3+ earned runs?

−120 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.

When does this prop resolve?

Grades on the official box score after TEX @ ARI (scheduled for 9:41 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.

How does WagerLens grade this prop?

We compare recent hit-rate windows, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We strip the vig to estimate a fair price, then compare it with the best available offer. The summary shows what the data supports without treating any outcome as certain.

Prop check

Merrill Kelly 3+ Earned Runs

TEX @ ARISep 11, 9:41 PM ET

Recent performance

Merrill Kelly earned runs over the last 5 games versus a line of 2.5.

Results versus the line

Hit rate

80%

Record

4/5

Average

3.6

HitMissL5

Matchup

How Merrill Kelly and the opponent line up for Earned Runs.

Merrill Kelly

ERASeason · 26 games: 5.15
ErLast game · 1 game: 3
ErL3: 2
ErL5: 3.60
ErL7: 3.43
ErL10: 2.70
ErSeason · 26 games: 3.19

Opponent

Opponent runsL5: 5.20

Supporting context

Use the primary read window with the longer trend and season-level player stats.

Over

L5Primary

80%

4/5 decisions

L10

50%

5/10 decisions

Games played

ERA

5.15

145.1

Er L1

Er Avg L3

Er Avg L5

3.6

Market prices

Compare the exact 2.5 earned runs line. Confirm the price at the sportsbook before betting.

Sportsbook links are provided for checking available prices, not as a betting recommendation.

Current books

1 quoting

BetMGM

Best

Check

Over

−120

Under −110

Odds updated 34m ago

Book	Over	Under	Updated	Action
BetMGM Best	−120	−110	Odds updated 34m ago	Check

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