What does the data say about Nick Martinez 3+ earned runs at this number?

Nick Martinez has had 3+ earned runs in 4 of 5 recent games (80%). Best price is −115 at BetMGM. The data leans 3+ earned runs.

What is Nick Martinez's hit rate on this prop?

Nick Martinez went 3+ earned runs in 4 of 5 decisions across the last 5 games — 80% at this line.

What is the best price on Nick Martinez 3+ earned runs?

−115 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.

When does this prop resolve?

Grades on the official box score after TB @ ATL (scheduled for 12:15 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.

How does WagerLens grade this prop?

We compare recent hit-rate windows, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We strip the vig to estimate a fair price, then compare it with the best available offer. The summary shows what the data supports without treating any outcome as certain.

Prop check

Nick Martinez 3+ Earned Runs

TB @ ATLSep 10, 12:15 PM ET

Recent performance

Nick Martinez earned runs over the last 5 games versus a line of 2.5.

Results versus the line

Hit rate

80%

Record

4/5

Average

3.2

HitMissL5

Supporting context

Use the primary read window with the longer trend and season-level player stats.

Over

L5Primary

80%

4/5 decisions

L10

50%

5/10 decisions

Games played

ERA

3.11

156.5

Er L1

Er Avg L3

Er Avg L5

3.2

Market prices

Compare the exact 2.5 earned runs line. These recorded prices are shown for research only.

Recorded books

1 books

BetMGM

Best

Closed

Over

−115

Under −118

Odds updated 1h ago

Book	Over	Under	Updated	Action
BetMGM Best	−115	−118	Odds updated 1h ago	Closed

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