What does the data say about Seth Lugo 3+ earned runs at this number?

Seth Lugo has recorded 3+ earned runs in 5 of their last 7 games (71%). No clear edge at the current price.

What is the historical hit rate for Seth Lugo 3+ earned runs?

Seth Lugo hit 3+ earned runs in 5 of 7 decisions across the last 7 games — 71% hit rate.

What is the best price for Seth Lugo 3+ earned runs?

−131 at DraftKings is the best price attached to this check for Seth Lugo 3+ earned runs right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.

When does this bet resolve?

Grades on the official box score after KC @ HOU (scheduled for 7:16 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.

How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?

We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We strip the vig to estimate a fair price, then compare it with the best available offer. The summary shows what the data supports without treating any outcome as certain.

Prop check

Seth Lugo 3+ Earned Runs

KC @ HOUSep 17, 7:16 PM ET

Recent performance

Seth Lugo earned runs over the last 7 games versus a line of 2.5.

Results versus the line

Record

5/7

Hit rate

71%

L7 average

4.0

HitMissL7

Matchup

How Seth Lugo and the opponent line up for Earned Runs.

Seth Lugo

ERASeason · 30 games: 5.08
ErLast game · 1 game: 2
ErL3: 4.67
ErL5: 4
ErL7: 4
ErL10: 3.70
ErSeason · 30 games: 3.03

Opponent

Opponent runsL5: 2.60

Supporting context

Use the primary read window with the longer trend and season-level player stats.

Over

EV −5.7%

60%

3/5 decisions

L7Primary

71%

5/7 decisions

L10

70%

7/10 decisions

Games played

ERA

5.08

161.2

Er L1

Er Avg L3

4.667

Er Avg L5

Market prices

Compare the exact 2.5 earned runs line. Confirm the price at the sportsbook before betting.

Sportsbook links are provided for checking available prices, not as a betting recommendation.

Current books

2 quoting

Best price: DraftKings −131 · 4¢ better than BetMGM

2 books · stale quotes flagged below

DraftKings

Best

Check

Over

−131

Under −101

Odds updated 52m ago

BetMGM

Check

Over

−135

Under +100

Odds updated 52m ago

Book	Over	Under	Updated	Action
DraftKings Best	−131	−101	Odds updated 52m ago	Check
BetMGM	−135	+100	Odds updated 52m ago	Check

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Recent performance

Results versus the line

Game log · L7

Matchup

Supporting context

Market prices

Current books

DraftKings

BetMGM

Market movement

Keep researching

Frequently asked

What does the data say about Seth Lugo 3+ earned runs at this number?

What is the historical hit rate for Seth Lugo 3+ earned runs?

What is the best price for Seth Lugo 3+ earned runs?

When does this bet resolve?

How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?