What does the data say about Sonny Gray 2+ earned runs at this number?

Sonny Gray has had 2+ earned runs in 4 of 5 recent games (80%). Best price is −125 at BetMGM.

What is the historical hit rate for Sonny Gray 2+ earned runs?

Sonny Gray hit 2+ earned runs in 4 of 5 decisions across the last 5 games — 80% hit rate.

What is the best price for Sonny Gray 2+ earned runs?

−125 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check for Sonny Gray 2+ earned runs right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.

When does this bet resolve?

Grades on the official box score after CLE @ BOS (scheduled for 7:11 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.

How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?

We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We strip the vig to estimate a fair price, then compare it with the best available offer. The summary shows what the data supports without treating any outcome as certain.

Prop check

Sonny Gray 2+ Earned Runs

CLE @ BOSSep 23, 7:11 PM ET

Recent performance

Sonny Gray earned runs over the last 5 games versus a line of 1.5.

Results versus the line

Record

4/5

Hit rate

80%

L5 average

2.4

HitMissL5

Supporting context

Use the primary read window with the longer trend and season-level player stats.

Over

EV −6.1%

L5Primary

80%

4/5 decisions

L10

70%

7/10 decisions

Games played

ERA

2.84

161.6

Er L1

Er Avg L3

Er Avg L5

2.4

Market

See how the exact 1.5 earned runs line moved, then compare sportsbook prices. These recorded prices are shown for research only.

Market movement

Over

Odds format

Open

−159

Current

−125

Change

+34

Best available moved from −159 to −125. That's a better payout, not a stronger case for Over.

Recorded books

2 books

Best price: BetMGM −125 · 4¢ better than DraftKings

2 books · stale quotes flagged below

BetMGM

Best

Closed

Over

−125

Under −110

Odds updated 1h ago

DraftKings

Closed

Over

−129

Under −103

Odds updated 1h ago

Book	Over	Under	Updated	Action
BetMGM Best	−125	−110	Odds updated 1h ago	Closed
DraftKings	−129	−103	Odds updated 1h ago	Closed

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Recent performance

Results versus the line

Game log · L5

Supporting context

Market

Market movement

Recorded books

BetMGM

DraftKings

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Frequently asked

What does the data say about Sonny Gray 2+ earned runs at this number?

What is the historical hit rate for Sonny Gray 2+ earned runs?

What is the best price for Sonny Gray 2+ earned runs?

When does this bet resolve?

How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?