What does the data say about Sonny Gray 3+ earned runs at this number?

Sonny Gray recorded 3+ earned runs in their last outing. No clear edge at the current price.

What is the historical hit rate for Sonny Gray 3+ earned runs?

Sonny Gray hit 3+ earned runs in 1 of 1 decisions across the last 1 games — 100% hit rate.

What is the best price for Sonny Gray 3+ earned runs?

+120 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check for Sonny Gray 3+ earned runs right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.

When does this bet resolve?

Grades on the official box score after BOS @ TEX (scheduled for 8:06 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.

How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?

We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We strip the vig to estimate a fair price, then compare it with the best available offer. The summary shows what the data supports without treating any outcome as certain.

Prop check

Sonny Gray 3+ Earned Runs

BOS @ TEXSep 17, 8:06 PM ET

Recent performance

Sonny Gray earned runs over the last 1 games versus a line of 2.5.

Results versus the line

Record

1/1

Hit rate

100%

L1 average

3.0

HitMissL1

Supporting context

Use the primary read window with the longer trend and season-level player stats.

Over

EV −5.7%

L1Primary

100%

1/1 decisions

40%

2/5 decisions

L10

40%

4/10 decisions

Games played

ERA

2.78

155.5

Er L1

Er Avg L3

1.667

Er Avg L5

1.8

Market prices

Compare the exact 2.5 earned runs line. These recorded prices are shown for research only.

Recorded books

2 books

Best price: BetMGM +120 · 5¢ better than DraftKings

2 books · observed 7m ago

BetMGM

Best

Closed

Over

+120

Under −165

DraftKings

Closed

Over

+115

Under −160

Book	Over	Under	Action
BetMGM Best	+120	−165	Closed
DraftKings	+115	−160	Closed

Line movement

3+ earned runs

Odds movement for this exact line. The threshold stays fixed.

Open

+103

Current

+120

Change

+17

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Recent performance

Results versus the line

Game log · L1

Supporting context

Market prices

Recorded books

BetMGM

DraftKings

Line movement

Keep researching

Frequently asked

What does the data say about Sonny Gray 3+ earned runs at this number?

What is the historical hit rate for Sonny Gray 3+ earned runs?

What is the best price for Sonny Gray 3+ earned runs?

When does this bet resolve?

How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?