What does the data say about Aaron Nola Under 2.5 earned runs at this number?

Aaron Nola has hit the under 2.5 in 5 of 5 recent games (100%). Best price is −125 at BetMGM. The data leans Under 2.5 earned runs.

What is Aaron Nola's hit rate on this prop?

Aaron Nola went Under 2.5 earned runs in 5 of 5 decisions across the last 5 games — 100% at this line.

What is the best price on Aaron Nola Under 2.5 earned runs?

−125 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.

When does this prop resolve?

Grades on the official box score after PHI @ ATL (scheduled for 7:16 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.

How does WagerLens grade this prop?

We compare recent hit-rate windows, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We strip the vig to estimate a fair price, then compare it with the best available offer. The summary shows what the data supports without treating any outcome as certain.

Prop check

Aaron Nola Under 2.5 Earned Runs

PHI @ ATLSep 11, 7:16 PM ET

Recent performance

Aaron Nola earned runs over the last 5 games versus a line of 2.5.

Results versus the line

Hit rate

100%

Record

5/5

Average

1.2

HitMissL5

Matchup

How Aaron Nola and the opponent line up for Earned Runs.

Aaron Nola

ERASeason · 29 games: 4.87
ErLast game · 1 game: 1
ErL3: 1.33
ErL5: 1.20
ErL7: 1.57
ErL10: 2
ErSeason · 29 games: 2.83

Opponent

Opponent runsL5: 2.20

Supporting context

Use the primary read window with the longer trend and season-level player stats.

Under

L5Primary

100%

5/5 decisions

L10

70%

7/10 decisions

Games played

ERA

4.87

151.5

Er L1

Er Avg L3

1.333

Er Avg L5

1.2

Market prices

Compare the exact 2.5 earned runs line. Confirm the price at the sportsbook before betting.

Sportsbook links are provided for checking available prices, not as a betting recommendation.

Current books

1 quoting

BetMGM

Best

Check

Under

−125

Over −110

Odds updated 26m ago

Book	Over	Under	Updated	Action
BetMGM Best	−110	−125	Odds updated 26m ago	Check

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