What does the data say about Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 earned runs at this number?

Merrill Kelly has hit the under 2.5 in 2 of 3 recent games (67%). No clear edge at the current price.

What is the historical hit rate for Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 earned runs?

Merrill Kelly hit under 2.5 earned runs in 2 of 3 decisions across the last 3 games — 67% hit rate.

What is the best price for Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 earned runs?

−128 at DraftKings is the best price attached to this check for Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 earned runs right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.

When does this bet resolve?

Grades on the official box score after MIA @ ARI (scheduled for 9:41 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.

How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?

We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We strip the vig to estimate a fair price, then compare it with the best available offer. The summary shows what the data supports without treating any outcome as certain.

Prop check

Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 Earned Runs

MIA @ ARISep 16, 9:41 PM ET

Recent performance

Merrill Kelly earned runs over the last 3 games versus a line of 2.5.

Results versus the line

Record

2/3

Hit rate

67%

L3 average

1.3

HitMissL3

Supporting context

Use the primary read window with the longer trend and season-level player stats.

Under

EV −5.2%

L3Primary

67%

2/3 decisions

40%

2/5 decisions

L10

50%

5/10 decisions

Games played

ERA

5.07

149.2

Er L1

Er Avg L3

1.333

Er Avg L5

2.6

Market prices

Compare the exact 2.5 earned runs line. These recorded prices are shown for research only.

Recorded books

2 books

Best price: DraftKings −128 · 7¢ better than BetMGM

2 books · stale quotes flagged below

DraftKings

Best

Closed

Under

−128

Over −103

Odds updated 1h ago

BetMGM

Closed

Under

−135

Over +100

Odds updated 1h ago

Book	Over	Under	Updated	Action
DraftKings Best	−103	−128	Odds updated 1h ago	Closed
BetMGM	+100	−135	Odds updated 1h ago	Closed

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Recent performance

Results versus the line

Game log · L3

Supporting context

Market prices

Recorded books

DraftKings

BetMGM

Market movement

Keep researching

Frequently asked

What does the data say about Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 earned runs at this number?

What is the historical hit rate for Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 earned runs?

What is the best price for Merrill Kelly Under 2.5 earned runs?

When does this bet resolve?

How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?