What does the data say about Max Fried Under 4.5 hits allowed at this number?

Max Fried has hit the under 4.5 in 3 of 3 recent games (100%). Best price is −118 at BetMGM, about 5.4% above model fair. The data leans Under 4.5 hits allowed.

What is the historical hit rate for Max Fried Under 4.5 hits allowed?

Max Fried hit under 4.5 hits allowed in 3 of 3 decisions across the last 3 games — 100% hit rate.

What is the best price for Max Fried Under 4.5 hits allowed?

−118 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check for Max Fried Under 4.5 hits allowed right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.

When does this bet resolve?

Grades on the official box score after NYY @ MIN (scheduled for 7:40 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.

How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?

We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We strip the vig to estimate a fair price, then compare it with the best available offer. The summary shows what the data supports without treating any outcome as certain.

Prop check

Max Fried Under 4.5 Hits Allowed

NYY @ MINSep 15, 7:40 PM ET

Recent performance

Max Fried hits allowed over the last 3 games versus a line of 4.5.

Results versus the line

Record

3/3

Hit rate

100%

L3 average

2.7

HitMissL3

Supporting context

Use the primary read window with the longer trend and season-level player stats.

Under

EV +5.4%

L3Primary

100%

3/3 decisions

80%

4/5 decisions

L10

60%

6/10 decisions

Games played

ERA

2.81

96.2

H L1

H Avg L3

2.667

H Avg L5

3.2

Market prices

Compare the exact 4.5 hits allowed line. These recorded prices are shown for research only.

Recorded books

3 books

Best price: BetMGM −118 · 38¢ better than DraftKings

3 books · stale quotes flagged below

BetMGM

Best

Closed

Under

−118

Over −110

Odds updated 35m ago

Pinnacle

Closed

Under

−151

Over +114

Odds updated 35m ago

DraftKings

Closed

Under

−156

Over +117

Odds updated 35m ago

Book	Over	Under	Updated	Action
BetMGM Best	−110	−118	Odds updated 35m ago	Closed
Pinnacle	+114	−151	Odds updated 35m ago	Closed
DraftKings	+117	−156	Odds updated 35m ago	Closed

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Recent performance

Results versus the line

Game log · L3

Supporting context

Market prices

Recorded books

BetMGM

Pinnacle

DraftKings

Market movement

Keep researching

Frequently asked

What does the data say about Max Fried Under 4.5 hits allowed at this number?

What is the historical hit rate for Max Fried Under 4.5 hits allowed?

What is the best price for Max Fried Under 4.5 hits allowed?

When does this bet resolve?

How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?