What does the data say about Max Fried Under 16.5 outs at this number?

Max Fried has hit the under 16.5 in 5 of 7 recent games (71%). No clear edge at the current price.

What is Max Fried's hit rate on this prop?

Max Fried went Under 16.5 outs in 5 of 7 decisions across the last 7 games — 71% at this line.

What is the best price on Max Fried Under 16.5 outs?

−106 at Caesars is the best price attached to this check right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.

When does this prop resolve?

Grades on the official box score after COL @ NYY (scheduled for 7:05 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.

How does WagerLens grade this prop?

We compare recent hit-rate windows, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We strip the vig to estimate a fair price, then compare it with the best available offer. The summary shows what the data supports without treating any outcome as certain.

Prop check

Max Fried Under 16.5 Outs

COL @ NYYSep 10, 7:05 PM ET

Recent performance

Max Fried outs over the last 7 games versus a line of 16.5.

Results versus the line

Hit rate

71%

Record

5/7

Average

14.6

HitMissL7

Matchup

How Max Fried and the opponent line up for Outs.

Max Fried

ERASeason · 17 games: 2.80
Outs recordedLast game · 1 game: 17 (5.2 IP)
Outs recordedL3: 14.33 (4.2 IP)
Outs recordedL5: 15.60 (5.1 IP)
Outs recordedL7: 14.57 (5 IP)
Outs recordedL10: 14.50 (5 IP)
Outs recordedSeason · 17 games: 16.88 (5.2 IP)

Opponent

Opponent on-base percentageSeason · 145 games: .322

Supporting context

Use the primary read window with the longer trend and season-level player stats.

Under

EV −5.0%

60%

3/5 decisions

L7Primary

71%

5/7 decisions

L10

70%

7/10 decisions

Games played

ERA

2.8

93.1

Outs L1

Outs Avg L3

14.333

Outs Avg L5

15.6

Market prices

Compare the exact 16.5 outs line. Confirm the price at the sportsbook before betting.

Sportsbook links are provided for checking available prices, not as a betting recommendation.

Current books

4 quoting

Caesars is 6 cents better than the lowest current Under quote.

Caesars

Best

Check

Under

−106

Over −125

Odds updated 1h ago

BetMGM

Check

Under

−110

Over −125

Odds updated 1h ago

Pinnacle

Check book

Under

−112

Over −118

Odds updated 1h ago

BetRivers

Check book

Under

—

Over −120

Odds updated 1h ago

Book	Over	Under	Updated	Action
Caesars Best	−125	−106	Odds updated 1h ago	Check
BetMGM	−125	−110	Odds updated 1h ago	Check
Pinnacle	−118	−112	Odds updated 1h ago	Check book
BetRivers	−120	—	Odds updated 1h ago	Check book

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Recent performance

Results versus the line

Game log · L7

Matchup

Supporting context

Market prices

Current books

Caesars

BetMGM

Pinnacle

BetRivers

Market movement

Keep researching

Frequently asked

What does the data say about Max Fried Under 16.5 outs at this number?

What is Max Fried's hit rate on this prop?

What is the best price on Max Fried Under 16.5 outs?

When does this prop resolve?

How does WagerLens grade this prop?