Bill Murray
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
NFL player prop· BUFSettled: Hit
Dawson Knox Under 11.5 Receiving Yards vs. Rams
Receiving Yards
You checked 11.5, an alternate line. Most books: 12.5.
BUF@LAROct 12, 8:15 PM ET
The line
Under 11.5 receiving yards
3 of 4 decided (75%) · this season
Last seen +100 at BetMGM, as of Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET · 5 books quoting
Showing saved research.
Settled: Under 11.5 receiving yards won.
Final: 6.
Closing price +100 at BetMGM. Pregame evidence: hit 2 of 3 (67%) in the last 3.
Hit rate vs the line
3of4
(75%)
Sep 13 – Oct 4
- 7
- 5
- 5
- 13
Receiving Yards per game, oldest to newest
L4 average
7.5vs 11.5 line
Based on 4 games
Game results
Dawson Knox receiving yards over the last 4 games versus a line of 11.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 11.5
Game log · L4, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Receiving Yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | vsNE | Miss | 13 |
| Sep 27 | vsLAC | Hit | 5 |
| Sep 17 | vsDET | Hit | 5 |
| Sep 13 | @HOU | Hit | 7 |
What the data showed before the game
Sportsbooks
8 books
Closing price: BetMGM +100
Prices as of Oct 12, 8:15 PM ET. Compare prices at the book.
BetRivers
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Caesars
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Fanatics
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FanDuel
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Pinnacle
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theScore Bet
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Game context
The game behind the bet
Dawson Knox: 7.2 receiving yards average (5 tracked games).
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
Buffalo Bills
Your selection
2026 season · 5 games
4–1
Record
32.8
Points / game
28.2
Allowed / game
Los Angeles Rams
2026 season · 5 games
2–3
Record
23.8
Points / game
24
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Under 11.5 receiving yards
Closing priceWhat's the vig on this price?
Odds format
Open
−110
Current
+100
Change
+10
Best available moved from −110 to +100. That's a better payout, not a stronger case for Under.
Matchup
Player stats for this market
- Receiving Yards Average
- 7.2
- Receptions Average
- 1.4
- Targets Average
- 1.8
- Games Played
- 5
Pregame context
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Latest sourced reports
- Aaron Donald thinks he'll play for Rams vs Bills after a short injury setback in his comeback (opens in a new tab)
against the Buffalo Bills
Aaron Donald thinks he'll play for Rams vs Bills
abcnews.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Los Angeles Rams
CJ Daniels
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Buffalo Bills
Ar'maj Reed-Adams
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
DJ Moore
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Related checks
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Dawson Knox Under 11.5 receiving yards at this number?
Dawson Knox hit under 11.5 receiving yards in 3 of his last 4 tracked games (75%).
What is the historical hit rate for Dawson Knox Under 11.5 receiving yards?
Dawson Knox hit under 11.5 receiving yards in 3 of 4 games across this season (4 games) (75% hit rate).
What is the best price for Dawson Knox Under 11.5 receiving yards?
+100 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check for Dawson Knox Under 11.5 receiving yards right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 8:15 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.