Bill Murray
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
NFL player prop· BUFSettled: Hit
Dalton Kincaid Under 3.5 Receptions vs. Rams
Receptions
You checked 3.5, an alternate line. Most books: 4.5.
BUF@LAROct 12, 8:15 PM ET
The line
Under 3.5 receptions
2 of 4 decided (50%) · this season
Last seen +128 at DraftKings, as of Oct 9, 9:53 AM ET · 4 books quoting
Showing saved research.
Settled: Under 3.5 receptions won.
Final: 1.
Closing price +128 at DraftKings. Pregame evidence: hit 2 of 3 (67%) in the last 3.
Hit rate vs the line
2of4
(50%)
Sep 13 – Oct 4
- 5
- 7
- 2
- 1
Receptions per game, oldest to newest
L4 average
3.8vs 3.5 line
Based on 4 games
Game results
Dalton Kincaid receptions over the last 4 games versus a line of 3.5.
Results versus the line
HitMissLine 3.5
Game log · L4, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Receptions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4 | vsNE | Hit | 1 |
| Sep 27 | vsLAC | Hit | 2 |
| Sep 17 | vsDET | Miss | 7 |
| Sep 13 | @HOU | Miss | 5 |
What the data showed before the game
Sportsbooks
8 books
Closing price: DraftKings +128
Prices as of Oct 9, 9:53 AM ET. Compare prices at the book.
BetMGM
—
(opens in a new tab)View prices
BetRivers
—
(opens in a new tab)Over −220
Caesars
—
(opens in a new tab)View prices
Fanatics
—
(opens in a new tab)View prices
FanDuel
—
(opens in a new tab)Over −235
Pinnacle
—
(opens in a new tab)View prices
theScore Bet
—
(opens in a new tab)Over −200
Game context
The game behind the bet
Dalton Kincaid: 3.2 receptions average (5 tracked games).
This game has started. The team stats below are the latest stored season totals, not a snapshot of what was known before kickoff. Any saved WagerLens Read above keeps its original capture time.
Team comparison
Buffalo Bills
Your selection
2026 season · 5 games
4–1
Record
32.8
Points / game
28.2
Allowed / game
Los Angeles Rams
2026 season · 5 games
2–3
Record
23.8
Points / game
24
Allowed / game
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Under 3.5 receptions
Closing priceWhat's the vig on this price?
Odds format
Open
+106
Current
+128
Change
+22
Best available moved from +106 to +128. That's a better payout, not a stronger case for Under.
Matchup
Player stats for this market
- Receptions Average
- 3.2
- Targets Average
- 4.2
- Receiving Yards Average
- 55.4
- Catch Percentage Average
- 0.7
Pregame context
Availability and reports
Pregame research captured
Latest sourced reports
- Aaron Donald thinks he'll play for Rams vs Bills after a short injury setback in his comeback (opens in a new tab)
against the Buffalo Bills
Aaron Donald thinks he'll play for Rams vs Bills
abcnews.com · · Availability report
These are injury reports, not a ranking of betting impact.
Los Angeles Rams
CJ Daniels
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Buffalo Bills
Ar'maj Reed-Adams
out
Reported context: Blocking personnel are affected; the size of the matchup impact is unknown.
DJ Moore
out
Reported context: Receiving options are affected; target redistribution is not confirmed.
Keep researching
Frequently asked
What does the data say about Dalton Kincaid Under 3.5 receptions at this number?
Dalton Kincaid hit under 3.5 receptions in 2 of his last 4 tracked games (50%). Best price is +128 at DraftKings.
What is the historical hit rate for Dalton Kincaid Under 3.5 receptions?
Dalton Kincaid hit under 3.5 receptions in 2 of 4 games across this season (4 games) (50% hit rate).
What is the best price for Dalton Kincaid Under 3.5 receptions?
+128 at DraftKings is the best price attached to this check for Dalton Kincaid Under 3.5 receptions right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 8:15 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.