Prop check
Aaron Nola Over 0.5 Earned Runs
Final · graded Sep 27
Hit · Actual: 3 Earned Runs · Line 0.5 · Closing price +105 at BetMGM
Past games
| Date | Opponent | Line | Closing price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 7:16 PM ET | Tampa Bay Rays | 0.5 | +105 | hit |
What the data showed before the game
The game behind the bet
TB @ PHI
Sep 26, 7:16 PM ET
Game results
Aaron Nola earned runs over the last 10 games versus a line of 0.5.
Results versus the line
Record
9/10
Hit rate
90%
L10 average
1.7
Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Open
+105
Current
−130
Change
−35
Best available moved from +105 to −130. That's a worse payout. The move still doesn't tell you whether Over is worth backing.
Recorded books
Best price: BetMGM −130 · 24¢ better than DraftKings
Under −105
BetMGM quote is stale. Check the current price at the book.Under +116
DraftKings quote is stale. Check the current price at the book.Supporting context
Use the primary read window with the longer trend and season-level player stats.
80%
4/5 decisions
90%
9/10 decisions
Games played
33
ERA
4.77
IP
171.6
Er L1
3
Er Avg L3
2.333
Er Avg L5
2
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