MLB player prop· CLESettled: Miss
Parker Messick Over 1.5 Earned Runs vs. Twins
Earned Runs
You checked 1.5, an alternate line. Most books: 2.5.
Over 1.5 earned runs
3 of 8 decided (38%) · last 8 games
Last seen −175 at BetMGM, as of Sep 11, 7:17 AM ET · 1 book quoting
Showing saved research.
Settled: Over 1.5 earned runs lost.
Final: 1.
Closing price −175 at BetMGM. Pregame evidence: hit 1 of 1 (100%) in the last 1.
Hit rate vs the line
3of8
(38%)
Jul 26 – Sep 5
- 1
- 1
- 2
- 2
- 1
- 1
- 1
- 3
Earned Runs per start, oldest to newest
L8 average
1.5vs 1.5 line
Based on 8 starts
Game results
Parker Messick earned runs over the last 8 games versus a line of 1.5.
Results versus the line
Game log · L8, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Earned Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5 | DET | Hit | 3 |
| Aug 30 | KC | Miss | 1 |
| Aug 24 | LAA | Miss | 1 |
| Aug 19 | SF | Miss | 1 |
| Aug 13 | DET | Hit | 2 |
| Aug 7 | CWS | Hit | 2 |
| Aug 1 | AZ | Miss | 1 |
| Jul 26 | TB | Miss | 1 |
What the data showed before the game
Sportsbooks
Closing price: BetMGM −175
Prices as of Sep 11, 7:17 AM ET. Compare prices at the book.
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Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Open
−145
Current
−175
Change
−30
Best available moved from −145 to −175. That's a worse payout. The move still doesn't tell you whether Over is worth backing.
Supporting context
Compare recent averages with the line and season stats.
| Window | Average earned runs | vs 1.5 line |
|---|---|---|
| L5 | 1.6 | +0.1 |
Games played
35
ERA
2.69
IP
191
Er L1
0
Er Avg L3
1.333
Er Avg L5
1.2
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Frequently asked
What does the data say about Parker Messick Over 1.5 earned runs at this number?
Parker Messick hit over 1.5 earned runs in 3 of his last 8 tracked games (38%). Best price is −175 at BetMGM.
What is the historical hit rate for Parker Messick Over 1.5 earned runs?
Parker Messick hit over 1.5 earned runs in 3 of 8 games across the last 8 games (38% hit rate).
What is the best price for Parker Messick Over 1.5 earned runs?
−175 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check for Parker Messick Over 1.5 earned runs right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 8:11 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.