MLB player prop· CLESettled: Miss
Parker Messick Over 4.5 Hits Allowed vs. Twins
Hits Allowed
Over 4.5 hits allowed
2 of 3 decided (67%) · last 3 games
Last seen −145 at BetMGM, as of Sep 11, 7:50 PM ET · 1 book quoting
Showing saved research.
Settled: Over 4.5 hits allowed lost.
Final: 3.
Closing price −145 at BetMGM. Pregame evidence: hit 2 of 3 (67%) in the last 3.
Hit rate vs the line
2of3
(67%)
Aug 24 – Sep 5
- 3
- 5
- 7
Hits Allowed per start, oldest to newest
L3 average
5.0vs 4.5 line
Based on 3 starts
Game results
Parker Messick hits allowed over the last 3 games versus a line of 4.5.
Results versus the line
Game log · L3, newest first
| Date | Opponent | Result | Hits Allowed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5 | DET | Hit | 7 |
| Aug 30 | KC | Hit | 5 |
| Aug 24 | LAA | Miss | 3 |
What the data showed before the game
Sportsbooks
Closing price: BetMGM −145
Prices as of Sep 11, 7:50 PM ET. Compare prices at the book.
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Market movement
These recorded prices are shown for research only.
Price history
Open
−150
Current
−145
Change
+5
Best available moved from −150 to −145. That's a better payout, not a stronger case for Over.
Supporting context
Compare recent averages with the line and season stats.
| Window | Average hits allowed | vs 4.5 line |
|---|---|---|
| L5 | 4.8 | +0.3 |
Games played
35
ERA
2.69
IP
191
H L1
6
H Avg L3
4
H Avg L5
4.6
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Frequently asked
What does the data say about Parker Messick Over 4.5 hits allowed at this number?
Parker Messick hit over 4.5 hits allowed in 2 of his last 3 tracked games (67%). Best price is −145 at BetMGM.
What is the historical hit rate for Parker Messick Over 4.5 hits allowed?
Parker Messick hit over 4.5 hits allowed in 2 of 3 games across the last 3 games (67% hit rate).
What is the best price for Parker Messick Over 4.5 hits allowed?
−145 at BetMGM is the best price attached to this check for Parker Messick Over 4.5 hits allowed right now. Prices move quickly, so compare the available books and confirm the number before betting.
When does this bet resolve?
Grades on the official box score after the game (scheduled for 8:11 PM ET). If the game's postponed, suspended, or doesn't become official, most books void the bet — your sportsbook's specific rules apply.
How does WagerLens evaluate this bet?
We compare recent hit rate, supporting stats, lineup context when available, and the current market price. We account for the sportsbook's margin when comparing prices. The summary shows the data, not a certain outcome.
Research, not a pick.
We show the sample, the line and the price. You make the call.